NewsDrop-April-2025

MITIGATING RISK TO THE AQUIFER DURING DROUGHTS

THIS RESEARCH WAS PUBLISHED IN THE PRESTIGIOUS nature sustainability JOURNAL IN JANUARY 2025.

By: Hakan Ba ş a ğ ao ğ lu Associate Director, Modeling

measures in protecting spring flows and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the Edwards Aquifer. This study represents the first Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis confirming the success of these strategies for the Edwards Aquifer system, providing valuable insights that contribute to both local and broader water manage ment practices.

Recent research conducted by EAA staff members Hakan Ba ş a ğ ao ğ lu and Paul Bertetti, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Texas at San Antonio (Dr. Chakraborty and his team), Oklahoma State University (Dr. Mirchi) and the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Dr. Wootten), has demonstrated the ef fectiveness of existing water conservation

view: https://www.nature.com/ articles/s41893-024-01477-6

CONSERVATION MEASURES

USING SPECIALIZED AI TECHNIQUES innovate

Most importantly, the analysis reveals that the conservation measures have been effective and are expected to remain effective under future climate scenarios. Without these conservation efforts, the aquifer would likely have experienced lower water levels and spring flows, jeopardizing both the ecosystem and water supplies. In the coming years, as more data becomes avail able, the EAA plans to continue assessing the impact of each conservation measure on safe guarding the aquifer and the habitats and identify potential refinements using advanced tools and to effectively respond to evolving climate conditions.

assess their potential effectiveness under future climate conditions. The team conducted a study using specialized AI techniques to explore these “counterfactuals” — hypothetical scenarios that help plan strategically and mitigate risk to the aquifer and its ecosystem during droughts. This innovative approach allowed the research ers to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of conservation strategies in recent years and under projected climate conditions. This approach is more advanced than traditional predictive models, helping the agency plan by considering a wide range of potential climate scenarios derived from global climate models.

Over the past two decades, the EAA developed conservation and mitigation measures to man age groundwater withdrawals during periods of drought. The measures include restrictions on permitted withdrawals, incentive-based suspen sion of pumping, and use of the San Antonio Water Systems (SAWS) aquifer storage and recovery system. While the conservation measures have shown positive results during the drought of 2011–2014 and the current drought, challenges such as varying water use, population growth, and variable recharge rates have made it difficult to fully quantify their effectiveness.

The EAA sought evidence to evaluate the effec tiveness of these conservation measures and to

Artwork by: Micah Meyers

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